Bamboo Scaffolding

Bamboo Scaffolding, originally uploaded by EUFO Views.

In Hong Kong, surprisingly large structures are constructed using Bamboo scaffolding. Bamboo is a naturally produced, renewable, and sustainable product. I wonder if this is a glimpse of future building products?

Pay for a Prayer

Pay for a Prayer, originally uploaded by inrepose.

inrepose (Flickr id) writes:

"Insert 20p and select one of a range of prayers. An interactive sculpture which gives you back the money after providing an interesting message. Warning not to be used by the holy or holey. The prayers were about relationships with various chocolate bar brands."

An interesting combination of machine, spirituality, and commerce.

Innocent Promotion

Innocent Promotion, originally uploaded by EUFO Views.

A three-way marketing promotion, linking Sainsbury (the supermarket chain), Innocent (the smoothie manufacturer), and Age Concern (a charity for the relief of poverty in the elderly).

This can be a useful device to create brand loyalty amongst consumers. For example, smoothie buyers tend to be young and affluent - just the demographic that Sainsbury needs to attract as a company.

The young also tend to give more to charity, so a link to a widely known charity is a positive affiliation. 'Fuel poverty' (where fuel costs absorb more than 10% of houshold income) is an issue that is increasing in profile in the UK that disproportionately affects the elderly. The little wooly hat on top of the bottle is just that - a marketing device to act as the cherry on the cake that consolidates the loyalty to the project by reminding us of outr grandmothers.

However, what happens of things go wrong? For example, if there were to be a scandal about Trustees expenses at Age Concern. Or if the smoothie ingredients were found to be 'impure'. The carefully constructed affiliation would collapse and sales may well plummet.

Perhaps affiliative marketing is a high risk strategy? If things go well, sales can be well in excess of what they otherwise would have been. If things don't go well, then the investment in the brand and its affiliations may not be recouped.

Book Crossing

Book Crossing, originally uploaded by EUFO Views.

The US idea of Book Crossing, whilst having some resonance in Europe, hasn't really crossed cultures.

In the US, people read in coffee houses. In Europe, they converse. Equally, we might question the purpose of a book. If reading a book is an act of consumption (possibly more so in the US), then a book becomes disposable. If the book is an investment (possibly more so in Europe), then a book is bought to retain.

This indicates that a cultural nuance in one area (the US) may not be resdily replicated in another (Europe). Is it surprising that this book exchange in Starbucks Luzern is empty?

The Dollar Wobbles

Sometimes the future catches up with the present faster than we originally had anticipated. A couple of years ago we had suggested that a time would come when the US Federal Reserve would be in bit of a bind, as domestic pressures were for interest rates to move downwards, but external pressures would be for interest rates to move upwards. In our original thinking, we foresaw this happening in the time frame of about 2009 to 2011, and we viewed it as part of a much larger and much longer term realignment of the world economy.

An interesting article in the Wall Street Journal caught my attention this week (see article) as it suggested that the conundrum to be faced by the Fed had, actually, happened a couple of years earlier than we had anticipated. This position was supported by The Economist, which has a nice little graphic that captures the situation (see article).

We are starting to live in interesting times! It was more than coincidental that the sell-off last week was caused by a minor official in the Chinese Government thinking aloud about the diversification of the currency reserves away from a depreciating currency (i.e. the US Dollar). In this area, we have two key milestones. The first is the composition of the East Asian currency reserves. The second is the destination of the Petrocurrency surpluses. In recent months, both have been away from the US Dollar, which has created the bind that the US Fed faces.

It could be that other OECD members might act in concert to support the US Dollar, by why should they? Open market operations to support the US Dollar would effectively export inflation into the Euro and Sterling zones. It would help the US if the Sterling and Euro nominal interest rates were to fall faster than the fall in the Dollar interest rates, but monetary conditions in Europe do not warrant such a move.

From a longer perspective, we can now visibly see the wealth and influence of the US flowing out of the country and into China, Japan, South Korea, Russia, and the EU. Every time a US citizen fills their car with petrol, money and influence flows out of the US. And yet, such is the disconnect that the US voters have not seen this linkage. Mere rhetoric will not restore influence to the US. It will take actions such as the conservation of energy and the restoration of production over consumption to restore the US to its position of primacy.

As we look at the candidates to be the next US President, we cannot but help thinking that the mediocrity of the Clinton years and the disaster of the Bush years are not likely to be turned around by the next incumbent. For this reason we are still bearish about the US, and we wonder if the US Dollar might have a long way further to fall.

Would Suffolk Benefit From Snoasis?

A Meeting Organised By EUFO

The Ipswich Institute
7th November 2007

Speakers:

GODFREY SPANNER, Onslow Suffolk Limited

JOHN WILLIAMS, Snoasis Community Alliance

Plans are currently going through the public planning process to construct a large winter sports complex at Great Blakenham in Suffolk. The proposals have met with resistance from local residents, who feel that the development, if it goes ahead, could have a severe detrimental effect upon their lifestyles. Equally, the prospect of the development, with the thousands of jobs that it would create, is one that is welcomed by a number of groups within Suffolk.

The question of Snoasis is of interest at a broader level, as it provides a clear example of the difficulties in balancing the broad benefits to the community that are to be gained from development and progress, whilst acknowledging that the external costs of the development will weigh very heavily on the narrower section of society affected by that development. This process is further hampered by dealing with the prospect of events yet to happen in an uncertain future, which brings into question the way in which we, as a community, deal with risk in our public affairs. We do not have any simple answers to these questions, but I feel that we have made a start in understanding them.

We deliberately avoided taking a sample of opinions at the meeting because we felt that would detract from our aims. We wanted to provide an evening where the issues could be aired, both for and against Snoasis, with the intention of leaving it to the audience to make up their own minds after further reflection. On the whole, I think that we achieved this objective. For my part, it certainly helped me to clarify my thoughts on the issue.

The meeting captured the imagination of the general public, and was considerably over-subscribed. It attracted the attention of the local press both before the meeting (see article) and after the meeting (see article). we apologise to all of those who widshed to attend, but who we were unable to accommodate. I hope that our meeting report can help to provide a bit of illumination on the subject.

READ the full report.

The Family Of The Future

One of the news items that caught our attention this week was a BBC series on the family of the future (out to about 2050). The series consisted of a number of short pieces that are collected about a central web page (see page). The pieces are evidentially based upon an attitudinal survey conducted for the BBC by ICM (see survey), and the TV pieces highlight some of the more interesting findings in the survey. A more interesting summary page is on the BBC web site (see page).

Some of the points that have stayed with me are that there are just over 17 million families in the UK. 71% of these are headed by a married couple (is marriage failing as an institution?) and the average family has 1.8 children – below the demographic replacement rate, but not far below. It amused me to see that families without children under 10 sleep for 38% of their time, and those with children under 10 sleep for 36% of their time. I remember well the sleep deprivation associated with small children!

Another aspect of the survey that caught my interest was the comparison of a UK family with ones from Egypt, Sierra Leone, India and Indonesia. The video on family life in China (see video) is particularly timely in reminding us of how easy family life is in Europe when compared with other parts of the world.

Perhaps the most thought provoking piece is the speculative piece on the family of 2050 (see piece). It begs the question of what sort of architecture the family might have (More same sex families? More revolving parentage?), how the family – as an institution – will interact with technology (Virtual families? Teleconferencing family meals?), and how the family will interact with the state (More state intervention in family life? Less privacy within the family?).

All in all, this proved to be a fascinating glimpse into one of the core elements of society. It is unlikely that the family will cease to exist as an institution by 2050. However, as it reflects the world around it, family life in 2050 might be very different to how it is today.

Europe Revisited

In an earlier post (see post), we asked if the European experiment was irreversible. Ever since the French and Dutch public voted against their national ratification of the European Constitution in 2005, it has been taken for granted by the Eurosceptics (the Atlanticists in our previous post) that no further integration would occur. Even at the time, we thought this to be a rather simplistic view. This has proved to be the case.

The original document was ratified by sixteen member states, including Spain who tested the document by Referenda. After the rejection of the document by the Dutch and French publics, seven further member states, including the UK, decided not to continue with the ratification process. Upon joining the EU in 2007, Bulgaria and Romania signed up to the principles of the Constitution as a condition of their membership. This resulted in an unhappy situation where the majority of member states wished to reform the way in which the EU operates, but were unable to affect that reform at a national level.

The answer to this quandary was to use the device of a Reform Treaty. The Lisbon Treaty (as it will come to be known) seeks to reform the existing treaty arrangements between member states rather than to create new arrangements (see article). Although the Atlanticists cry ‘foul’, it is unlikely that any action can effectively be taken to derail this arrangement (see article), despite mounting pressure to halt the process (see article).

This is significant for a number of reasons. First, it demonstrates that there is a momentum behind European integration. This point needs to be remembered when considering the case for further enlargement of the EU (in particular in the case of Turkey). The momentum of the project will continue to drive it forward, which brings us to the second point. If the EU is evolving and changing, any forecasts about its development over the next twenty years need to be hedged with a great deal of uncertainty. The EU may well not have an ageing population – through enlargement. It may not turn out to have a sclerotic economy – through enlargement. These issues depend upon how the EU evolves in this time frame.

The EU is a supra-national response to the supra-national issues of climate change and globalisation. As these issues progress in the years to come, the justification for the EU will also grow stronger. The challenge to be faced by the EU will be to develop as a supra-national institution whilst allowing the character of local communities to remain. The evidence so far suggests that this challenge is being met more than adequately.

Indeed, the future challenge might be for national governments to demonstrate their continued relevance.

Second Life Again

In an earlier post (see note), we reported on the use of the virtual world in Second Life by paedophiles. A story on Sky News (yes, I know that it's Murdoch - see story) caught our attention as it shows Linden Labs co-operating with the authorities on both sides of the Atlantic and closing down the offending areas of Second Life.

The point that I find most interesting is that the US principle of the First Amendment (the right to freedom of speech to some, the pornographers charter to others) has been watered down by the impact of legal pressure from jurisdictions outside of the US.

We see this as an example of how Globalisation as a rule set is homogenising the way we all live our lives.

The Sick Old Man Of Europe Gets Well Again

Ever since joining NATO in 1952, Turkey has been the southern cornerstone of the Atlantic alliance. First, as a bulwark against Soviet expansion in the Black sea, and then as a beacon of what a Westernised Islamic democracy could be, Turkey has been held in special regard for a number of decades. This settled position is now starting to change.

Relations between Turkey and the EU have blown hot and cold over the years. Many in the EU see the importance of Turkey in terms of geopolitics and many look enviously at the demographics of the country. Turkey, in some quarters within the EU, is seen as a potential bulwark against the spread of a fundamentalist variety of Islam and as a potential source of millions of young workers. However, not everyone in the EU sees it in this way. The potential influx of millions of Turkish workers into the EU is seen by many as a threat rather than an opportunity, whilst one EU state – Cyprus – has declared that it will veto Turkish membership to the EU.

While the EU blows hot and cold over Turkish membership, the Turks have always been able to rely on the support of the US. This element is changing. Relations between the US and Turkey have cooled noticeably in recent weeks. In an interesting article in The Economist (see article), the recent Congressional vote on the Armenian massacres in 1915 is seen as a backwards step. The Turks now feel that, as they do not have the goodwill of the US, they need not be so restrained in using the military option to deal with Kurdish terrorism originating in northern Iraq.

In an interesting paper for the Centre for European Reform (see paper), Charles Grant considers the options for Turkey. Spurned by the EU, alienated by the US, Turkey is too small a nation to be able to function without friends. It would be natural for the Turks to be pushed into the arms of the Russians, whose diplomacy is less likely to alienate the Turks than that of the EU and the US. This is a theme that The Economist dealt with a few weeks back (see article), which suggests that a new alignment between Russia, Turkey, and Iran is developing.

This is in accordance with much of our research. Our studies suggest that, if Turkey does not join the EU, then further geographical expansion of the EU eastwards would be very difficult to achieve and the EU would be overly dependent upon Russian energy for the next fifteen years or so. Equally, our studies suggest that the solution to the American impasse in Iraq lies in Tehran. If the US does not find an accommodation with Iran, then extrication from Iraq will be fraught with unfortunate consequences.

For those interested in the geopolitics of the near future, if Turkey does realign away from the EU and the US and towards Russia and Iran, then we shall see a significant shift in the global balance of power. This is possibly more evidence of the relative decline of the US and the resurgence of Russia.

Perhaps we are getting closer to oil at $200 a barrel?

Would Better Transport Links To London Add To The Suffolk Brain Drain?

A Meeting Organised By EUFO

The Ipswich Institute
10th October 2007


Speakers:

STEPHEN AGUILAR-MILLAN, European Futures Observatory

Recently, the County Council hosted a forum on transport within Suffolk in the Twenty-First Century (see link). In this discussion, it was presumed that improved transport links with London would assist the development of the local economy in Suffolk. However, this may not necessarily be the case. Improved transport links make it easier for talent to flow out of the county as well as for opportunities to flow into the county. The purpose of the discussion was to examine some of these contentions.

The current position is that talent flows out of Suffolk. The more talented youngsters tend to leave the county - mainly for higher education and better career prospects – never to return. As a relatively under-developed economy, Suffolk lacks the inherent career opportunities to attract bright graduates into the county. It is argued by some, such as the Suffolk Development Agency, that improved transport links to London would assist the commercial development of Suffolk, thus improving the career paths within the Suffolk economy. As a starting point for the discussion, we assumed that, by magic, those improved transport links would be made overnight. In which case, would that be enough to stem the brain drain?

The statistics about business location proved to be interesting. When asked why they located in Suffolk, 46.5% of the respondents to the EUFO survey stated that it was because Suffolk is a nice place in which to live. This suggests to us that about half of the small business community is located in Suffolk precisely because it is relatively unspoilt and relatively under-developed. If Suffolk were to be made more accessible through better transport links to London, one wonders whether or not this cultural and environmental advantage would be sacrificed. Would Ipswich turn into a northern Croydon? I am afraid that this is a question that we were unable to answer. However, we could express our hopes and our fears for the future.

READ the full report.

Wanted - 9 New Planets

The recent postal disruption in the UK has served to change our habits – in the short term at least. One of the consequences of the postal disruption is that magazine subscriptions have not been delivered at their usual time. For me, whilst waiting for newer editions, I have been reading the editions that I have more fully. And what a world it has opened up for me!

In an obscure part of The Spectator of two weeks ago (the last issue to make it to me), is an article about soybeans (See Article). Actually, the article is about Biofuels, but the part about soybeans caught my attention. Apparently, if we wanted to produce enough ethanol to meet 10% of all present global energy demands, we would have to double the world’s farmland and plant it with soybeans. If we were to rely on soybeans to meet our present energy demands, we would need to find another 9 planets, as well as this one, and devote them to the production of soybeans.

This article points to three things. First, it demonstrates just how reliant we are upon oil-based fuels for transportation. Even if demand for transportation fuels were to remain constant, we would be unable to replace oil-based fuel for bio-fuels because there isn’t enough land on the planet to grow fuel (even if there would be enough water, sunlight, and so on). Of course, demand isn’t likely to remain static in the foreseeable future. The growth of China and India are already adding to the pace at which the demand for fossil fuels is growing.

This leads to our second point, which is that the article highlights the case for energy conservation. Conservation would allow the increasing demand for fuel in the developing economies to be offset – ideally, perfectly offset – by a reduced demand in the developed economies. However, this presumes that Europeans and Americans would get out of their cars and onto public transport to allow Chinese and Indians to use their cars. It is unlikely that such a switch will be seen without a major political effort to make it happen.

And that leads us to our third point – that the political leadership to make this happen doesn’t exist in Europe and North America. One way of enforcing such a change of behaviour would be to implement a Pigovian Tax on fossil fuels. The political will is not there to do so because we are so reliant upon fossil fuels.

This means that when politicians in Europe and North America make bold statements about the future use of bio-fuels, we can discount the statements as wishful thinking. For example, President Bush assured us in 2006 that the US will replace Middle East oil imports by biofuels by 75% by 2025. Even if there is enough land and enough water in the US to do this, one has to be sceptical about such a claim because we do not live in a world where everything else is equal. If there isn’t enough land and water in the US to deliver this promise, then is President Bush simply suggesting that the US exchanges its Middle East oil dependency with, say, a Brazilian corn dependency?

It seems that, in more ways than one, we are simply making a fragile system even more fragile.

Are We Ready For This?

I plead guilty to watching rubbish on You Tube.

However every now and then an interesting idea emerges. Have a look at this (Link to You Tube) - although you may find it disturbing.I'm not going to argue whether or not this is a correct view - it's fairly extreme. However, it does reflect a widely held sentiment outside of the US, even if that view is exaggerated.

For this reason, US leadership in the world is rather badly damaged. In it's place, we feel that Europe is now providing the diplomatic leadership, and China is on the verge of providing the commercial leadership in the world.

This may well become a dominant force in the near future. More so if the US is unable to find an alternative to Middle Eastern oil and petro-dollar financing.

The Return Of The Millenarians

The year 2000 came and went without the end of the world. All of the forecasts of impending global catastrophe, even those of Y2K computer meltdown, proved to be nothing more than unduly pessimistic speculation. As it happens, history has a number of examples of Millenarian movements around the Years 500 AD, 1000 AD, and 1500 AD. If one thing were predictable, it would be that a group of Millenarians would predict the end of the world in the Year 2000.

And so, in the Year 2007, we would have thought that we could lay the Millenarians to rest for another 493 years. We will need to think again. Apparently, there is an ‘ancient Mayan calendar’ that predicts that the world will end on 21st December 2012. This prediction has been taken up by the Millenarians and given an air of respectability. For example, in ‘The Mystery Of 2012’ (see book), a collection of researchers examine the basis of the prediction. It has also spawned a large collection of videos on You Tube (see example) that are, frankly, of little value at all.

In ‘The Chaos Point’, Ervin Laszlo examined how the 2012 prophecy might come about. If it were to be true, what would be the sequence of events that would lead up to it (see entry)? The analysis examined the theme of the potential impact of the Singularity, if that were to occur. It was this analysis that caught my attention as a futurist.

If we lay aside the more extreme of the Millenarian views, ought we not to contemplate the possibility of a major disruptive force in the world? That disruption may not come in 2012. It may be a single event that has already happened (e.g. 9/11). It may be a process that has, by and large, already happened (e.g. the creation of the Internet). Or it may be a process that we are currently experiencing (e.g. the decline of the US). It is at this point that the Millenarians may have a case.

It is comfortable to think that the future will simply be an extension of the past. However, if this is not true today, why should it be true in the future?

Child Abuse In Second Life

This is an interesting variation on a theme. A report from the BBC (see report) tells us that the German authorities are investigating Second Life (Linden Labs) over an alleged trade in under age sex on Second Life. Under European law, the directors of Linden Labs would be responsible for the conveyance of illegal pornographic images, even if they were unaware that these images were being traded from their servers. Looking ahead, if it proves to be the case that Second Life is becoming a harbour of criminality, I wonder how long it will be before it is closed?

Shocking Truths - The 21st Century Slave Trade

A Meeting Organised By The RSA

The RSA, London, UK
27th September 2007

Speakers:

EMMA THOMPSON

HELEN BAMBER, The Helen Bamber Foundation

My attraction to this meeting was the content. As part of our project on the Globalisation of Crime, I felt that this would be an interesting source of information about the flow of people, both legal and illegal, for the purposes of an illicit objective – the UK sex trade. I did have reservations about the involvement of celebrity (Emma Thompson has won two Oscars, and is quite well known on the UK) because I feared that it might overshadow the purpose of the meeting. However, on the other hand, it appears to me that many of my fellow attendees were there to see Emma Thompson, so the inclusion of celebrity, on this occasion, did broaden the conversation to a wider audience.

On the whole, I found the talk to very useful and illuminating. Although there were times when Emma Thompson’s celebrity played to the audience, I don’t feel that it detracted too much from the issues. The key point was that the talk persuaded me to go over to Trafalgar Square to have a look at the installation. If that was the purpose of the talk, then it achieved that purpose.

READ the full report.

Dates For Year 10 Time Bandits

12th September- The Futuring Quiz by Peter Bishop
19th September- UK to build zero carbon homes by 2016
26th September- Two-Parent Families: Adoptive vs. Natural
3rd October- Designing for the “Other 90 Percent”
10th October- Sub prime Lenders Target Women Unfairly
17th October- Men Not at Work

HALF TERM

7th November- Promoting Parenthood in Japan
14th November- Survival of the cutest
21st November-My Super Sweet Sixteen
28th November- Defeating Terrorism: Is it possible? Is it probable?
5th December- Dislocation and the Global Economy

Transformative Power In Action

It has been an interesting week for the students of geopolitics. Earlier in the week, the European courts upheld a previous ruling by the European Commission that Microsoft had been engaged in anti-competitive practices within the EU (see report in The Times). Microsoft, after paying a fine of just under half a billion Euros, will have to share some of its source code with other software developers, and will have to unbundle some of its products that are sold in the EU.

This is a clear example of the ‘Transformative Power’ of the EU. The thinking behind the use of Transformative power is quite simple. The EU is the largest trading area in the world, and those corporations who wish to trade in that area have to conform to the trading regulations of the EU. If foreign companies (e.g. Microsoft) wish to trade in the EU, then they have to become ‘European-like’ in their modus operandi. This has two interesting implications for the future.

First, as Mark Leonard pointed out in ‘Why Europe Will Run The Twenty-First Century’ (see our review), this will mean that, increasingly, global corporations will have to adopt the attributes of European corporations if they wish to access European markets. Although the Global Corporations may be incorporated and listed outside of Europe, they will have to become ‘European’ in what they do. They will have to transform themselves into European companies if they wish to operate within the EU.

This is not too much of a problem if European practices area broadly similar to the practices elsewhere. Sadly, they are not. There is a major difference in approach between the commercial practices in the US and in the EU. The EU operates on the basis of the Precautionary Principle (a good must be shown to be safe before it can be sold), whilst the US operates on what The Economist calls a ‘Cost Benefit Approach’ (if a good brings a net benefit to the US, irrespective of the collateral harm it may cause, then it may be sold in the US). In the US, the presumption of innocence lies with the companies, in the EU it doesn’t.

This theme is taken further by The Economist to develop the second implication (see article). Just as Russia has been using its energy policy as an instrument of foreign policy, there are also grounds to suggest that the EU has been using its trade policy as an instrument of a wider foreign policy agenda. It is interesting that the EU Trade Commissioner is Peter Mandelson, a British nominee who might be described as a hard core Federalist who is not at all sympathetic towards the US, and who is not uncomfortable in situations of conflict with the US.

The putative struggle between the EU and the US in setting the regulatory agenda for world trade is important because the trading regulations form a key piece of the architecture of globalisation. If the EU prevails, as the article in The Economist suggests, then Europe will be running the 21st Century. It will set the rules which the rest of the world will follow in global trade. In doing so, it will control a vital piece of the architecture of globalisation.

In the years to come, we shall look for further examples of US companies adopting a European modus operandi. If examples come readily to hand, then the EU is prevailing. If not, then perhaps Europe will not be running the 21st Century.

World Future 2007

This year for the World Futurists conference we went to Minneapolis. As this was my first conference I was a little nervous but really I didn't know what to expect. When I got to the Hilton it was a little overwhelming as everything was so big. Also I had never seen escalators in a hotel so I thought that was really cool.

There was some great material that was given and I learnt loads about what a “Futurist” means, like you have to know loads about everything even if you don’t do much work on it. Also how you need an opinion on most things and to be able to back that opinion up with evidence.

I started off with a pre conference course of Futuring: An Introduction to the Study of the Future by Peter Bishop. I found this really useful as there were some points where I had to speak and talk about why I thought something. Also something that is quite good to learn is that 9 out of 10 times a forecast is wrong.

In a way the conference was quite a blur as it went so quickly but one talk that stuck in my mind was Future Flow by Derek Woodgate. It really made me think about what most people must think of the future and how it is always bleak. It made me think that if many people take a step back and are less pessimistic then the world can become a much happier place. Especially, I think, in schools.

My dad did a few presentations so I went and helped him for these (being his slide girl) I think they went really well but I wasn’t always concentrating a lot as I was working. Overall I think the conference went really well and I am looking forward to next year in Washington.

Should Ipswich Develop Its Infrastructure Before It Builds More Houses?

A Meeting Organised By EUFO

The Ipswich Institute
19th September 2007


Speakers:

CLLR RICHARD ATKINS, Ipswich Borough Council

BARBARA ROBINSON, Community Campaigner

This meeting was organised as part of the RSA Coffee House Challenge initiative. The aim of the programme is to empower groups of people at a local level to meet to discuss matters of significance to them. It is part of a movement to reinvigorate public life in the UK at the grass roots level. The issues of development and regeneration in Ipswich have been at the heart of much activity of the Borough Council in recent years.

The central core of Ipswich is being modernised and given a fresh life, whilst the construction of large housing developments within the town have been a feature with us for some years. This development has not been without its problems. Traffic congestion, pollution, and the degradation of the built environment in the town centre have also accompanied the development in the town. This has led some members of the public to question whether the redevelopment of the town centre ought to be paused to allow for the accompanying infrastructure to catch up. This was the heart of the question being asked at the meeting.

READ the full report.

Transport For the 21st Century

For those following this subject (see original post), the Suffolk Chamber of Commerce - one of the organisers of the seminar have posted some Podcasts of the event onto their web site (see link).

Plate Tectonics!

Continents change as the tectonic plates on which they rest shift around. The results are earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and the creation of mountian ranges. The global economy is a bit like this.

As the locus of economic and political power changes its centre of gravity, so there will be economic earthquakes, financial volcanoes will blow, and new political mountain ranges will form.

In practical terms, whilst there may be the occasional bout of turbulence in the financial markets, most of the effects will be slow, gradual, and prolonged. For example, it could be argued that the current value of the dollar contains a 'hyper-puissance' premium that is draining away from the US. The more that the ineffectiveness of US foreign policy is demonstrated in Iraq, the greater will be the reductions in that premium.

There is an interesting piece in The Economist this week (see article) that examines the effect of a constantly depreciating dollar. If our view is correct, then the US dollar is over-valued at the moment, and further depreciations ought to be expected in the near future.

Is It Bear Season Yet?

While the focus of the world is upon the woes of the credit crunch, other significant stories are slipping by under the radar. One of these reported in The Economist caught our attention – a discussion of the cooling of relations between Europe and Russia (see article). It would appear that the Russian tactic of asserting itself through bilateral disputes has now reached such a critical mass that Russia risks provoking a reaction from a concerted Europe. In response to this, there is evidence reported in The Times that Russia might be a little more conciliatory if the nations of the EU were to offer a conciliatory approach (see article).

For those with an interest in future geopolitics, these two stories have certain significance. On the part of the EU, it would be unusual for the nations of the EU to act together jointly on a single policy. We call the two views within the EU the Atlanticist (to follow the lead of the US, to act as a weak confederation in matters of foreign policy) and the Federalist (to act jointly in matters of foreign policy, not necessarily following the lead of the US).

If it is true that a new consensus is growing between France and Germany towards Russia that leans towards the Federalist view of the world, then that might imply the pendulum has started to swing away from the Atlanticist view of further enlargement of the EU. In practical terms, this would be a good piece of news for Turkey, which has significance in Europe as a Black Sea bulwark against a resurgent Russia, and which has a geopolitical significance in terms of the Federalist agenda, but not necessarily in terms of the Atlanticist agenda. It would also suggest that relations between Europe and the US, which have been thawing in recent months, might start to grow cooler again.

It also highlights an interesting conundrum for the Russian Government. If the EU does distance itself from Washington, as President Putin called for, then it is quite likely that a more assertive EU in Federalist colours will emerge. This may not be to the advantage of Russia, as The Economist article suggests. After all, the EU does have two vetoes on the UN Security Council in the hands of the UK and France, which may be used to counter Russian interests in the Balkans. If, on the other hand Russia wants a more compliant EU, then the result may be a more Atlanticist perspective on the world, where the US offers a lead in European affairs.

We shall continue to monitor the developments in this relationship because it could be quite significant in the near future. Much of US policy in the Middle East presumes a disengaged Russia. However, with a proximate border with Iran across the Caspian Sea, it is difficult to see how US policy towards Iran could escape comment from Moscow. So far, Russian diplomacy has not been a feature in the war in Iraq. We wonder if this might be a feature in the near future.

Flying Cars (Again)

The BBC recently carried a story that caught my attention (see story). It was about Dr Paul Moller, a Californian inventor, who claims to have a prototype flying car that will enter production in 2010. This captured my attention because I am cursed, like most futurists, by the vision of the flying car. The flying car is often touted as an example of ‘bad’ futures gone wrong. A predicted future event that didn’t happen. It would be ironic if Dr Moller was right, in which case the predictions would simply seem ahead of their time.

There are, however, grounds to suspect that we might not see Flying Cars by 2010. A Google search quickly unearthed the case against Flying Cars. An article on the Downside Web Site (see article) calls into question the veracity of the Flying Car story. Even if the Downside story is right, and we do not see Flying Cars by 2010, it would be interesting to consider what might happen if it were to be true. It would be interesting to think about a truly disruptive technology in the field of transportation.

I had hoped that this opportunity had come my way. I recently attended a half day conference on the future of transportation in Suffolk (see meeting notes). I was keen to get to grips with concepts such as the impact of Peak Oil on commuting by car, the possible impacts of disruptive technologies, and how work patterns might be reorganised in an effort to reduce carbon footprints. In doing so, I had made a key mistake.

My fellows at the conference were not futurists. They were professionals in other areas of endeavour who have an interest in the future. The conference served to remind me of two factors. First, unless we encourage people to think differently, they will continue to think in straight lines. Many at the conference thought in terms of a linear link between the past, present, and future. In which case, the key to understanding the future is to understand the past and present. The possibility that the future might be different from the past was a concept that didn’t readily settle with most participants.

Second, whilst most of the conference goers were experts in their areas, very few had managed to join the connections between the various disciplines. One of the key attributes of many futurists is their ability to piece together a connection across disciplines. We look for weak signals in a variety of areas to provide evidence for, or against, a given hypothesis about the future. Sometimes, I forget that not everyone does this, which closes the circle nicely.

When my fellow futurists rail against the Flying Cars, perhaps we ought to have a bit more patience and forbearance with others. Not all have embarked upon the journey into the future, and, if they have, they might not have travelled as far as us. After all, the future is a frightening place where anything can happen.

Transport For the 21st Century

A Conference Organised By Suffolk County Council

Trinity Park, Ipswich, UK
7th September 2007

Participants:

CLLR GUY McGREGOR, Suffolk County Council (Chair)

DAVID FROST, British Chamber of Commerce

ROB MAIDMENT, Suffolk Development Agency

ANDY CAMERON, WSP Consultants

SAMIRA AHMED, B Sky B

ROGER TURKINGTON, Suffolk ACRE

COLIN IRLAM, Suffolk County Council

I was originally attracted to this meeting by a number of factors. To begin with, the focus of the conference was local to where I live, and the issue of transport is one that will affect me – personally - for some time to come. I was also interested in observing the state of play with regards to Foresight in the Public Sector. One could quite well argue that the UK is one of the leading exponents of Public Sector Foresight. However, there is a view that this is confined to the national level and has not really permeated down to the level of Local Government in the UK. I wanted to test this hypothesis. Finally, our research indicates that one of the major trends within society is the shift of allegiance away from the national and towards the community. I wanted to gain a feel for the community in which I happen to live and work.

The Conference was a first step in the engagement with the future. It was a good first step, and we ought not to expect too much from that first step. It will be interesting to see what comes from the Conference. If it is a stand alone event, then it would take on the characteristics of an opportunity missed. If, however, it was to represent the start of a process by which there is a discussion about what futures are possible and what futures are desired, then we shall all look back at the afternoon as quite a memorable event.

READ the full report.