A Right Royal Jelly

I had the good fortune to be invited to the first ‘Suffolk Jelly’ this week. It was organised by Suffolk Digital and hosted at the Eastern Enterprise Hub. I wasn’t quite sure what it was about, so I thought that I would go along to find out. I am very glad that I did because I found it to be a very worthwhile event. In trying to describe the event, I think that it was set in two halves. In one half was an office space which those attending could use for the day. I think that was the idea covered in the report in the local press. However, for me, I didn’t find that format at all helpful – I have a number of offices already.

My interest was aroused and inspired by the second half of the offering – the soap box section. This was a room dedicated to the attendees who were encouraged to present on any subject they liked. Most presentations were made by people telling the audience what they did. It was a bit hit and miss as to whether the subject was of interest, but it was important for allowing the presenters a bit of live practice at making a pitch. Some presentations were a bit more speculative, told the audience what the presenter hoped to do and asked for comment and feedback. This worked really well and provided the sort of feedback that one rarely obtains. My offering for the day was a short piece on why futures matter (or, more correctly, why ‘business as usual’ is not an option). The Q&A turned into a conversation about business model flexibility and adaptability. The whole ethos of the day felt a bit like those ‘Skunk Works’ sessions that some of us attended in previous lives.

What I found most interesting about the day was the opportunity that it afforded to build creative capacity within Suffolk. There are currently a large number of creative agents based in the county, but without a node around which to coalesce. The Jelly format seems ideal for delivering this. For example, I saw presentations by Jamie Riddell (basically a trend spotter/ cool hunter), Andrew Walker (whose line is data analytics), and Steve Butterworth (whose cause of citizen journalism is all about picking the story out of masses of raw data). To my mind, there is scope for these three individual agents to work collaboratively to bring to market a combined offering that would be larger than what they could achieve on their own.

And that is the challenge of building a creative community. There is more to it than simply joining the creative hotspots. Those connections need to amount to something larger than the individual parts. The first Suffolk Jelly may not have achieved that because there remains a great deal to be done. However, it was a very valuable first step in the right direction.

Click Here for details of the Jelly.

Click Here for press coverage of the event.

© The European Futures Observatory 2011

Why Go To Boston?

Every year I am asked why I go to the WFS Annual Conference. It’s a costly exercise. It has a huge carbon footprint. It takes days for me to recover from the jet lag. And yet, despite these costs, I still attend the meeting. There has to be something that has such a strong pull for me.

The primary benefits of attending are the content and the networking. The WFS is a broad church that contains many areas of interest, so there is usually something for me at most times. This year, I found the session on 21st Century economics interesting, along with the session on the future being regional. The quality of the sessions can vary from time to time, but what is more important is that everyone has an equal chance of being heard.

There were about 800 people attending the conference in Boston. This is one of the largest annual gatherings of futurists in the world and the opportunities for networking are immense. I have to admit that the networking attracts me more than the content. I just love the exchange of ideas, catching up with old friends, and making new ones. It is no wonder that I almost have a second residence in the bar!

Despite the high costs of attendance from Europe, the benefits to me are so strong that it would be inconceivable for me not to attend. I guess that I will see you all in Vancouver next year.

© The European Futures Observatory 2010

The Second London Futures Symposium

A Meeting Organised By The European Futures Observatory

edexcel, 190 High Holborn, London

Speakers:

STEPHEN AGUILAR-MILLAN, The European Futures Observatory
ADAM GORDON, The Future Studio
Dr TRUDY BARBER, University of Portsmouth
FRANCESCA BIRKS, Arup Group

On Wednesday 12th November 2008, thirty futurists and non-futurists from across Europe met in Central London for a series of presentations to introduce the study of the future.

Stephen Aguilar-Millan of The European Futures Observatory presented a session on 'An Introduction To Future Studies', Adam Gordon from The Future Studio presented a session on 'An Introduction To Scenarios'. After lunch, Dr Trudy Barber of the University of Portsmouth gave a paper on 'The future Of Gender, Media, and Identity'. The day was rounded off by Francesca Birks of the Arup Group, who presented on 'Eco-Resorts Of The Future'.

The day proved to be quite enjoyable. There was a good range of information to be absorbed, coupled with the opportunity to renew old acquaintances and to make new friends.

READ the full report and access the presentations.

The London Futures Symposium

A Meeting Organised By The European Futures Observatory

The Keyworth Centre, London South Bank University

Speakers:

DAVID BIRCH, Consult Hyperion
MARTIN RHISIART, Cardiff University
ZARMINA PENNER, Future Management Group, AG
JO CAUSON, Chartered Institute Of Management

On Friday 18th April 2008, twenty futurists and non-futurists from across Europe met at The Keyworth Centre at the London South Bank University for a series of presentations on aspects of the future.

David Birch of Consult Hyperion presented a session on the move to a cashless society, which is particularly important in the case of African and Asian development; Martin Rhisiart of Cardiff University Business School presented on the disappearance of the nation state; and Zarmina Penner of Future Management Group and Jo Causon of the Chartered Management Institute presented on the Future of Work and Management.

The day proved to be quite enjoyable. There was a good range of information to be absorbed, coupled with the opportunity to renew old acquaintances and to make new friends.

READ the full report and access the presentations.

Perfectly Unpredictable

A Meeting Organised By Gresham College

Gresham College, London, UK

28th January 2008

Speaker:

MICHAEL MAINELLI, Mercers’ Professor of Commerce, Gresham College

One of the hazards of being a Futurist is that we can too easily fall into the trap of prediction. We are frequently called upon to provide a view on how the future may take shape. In doing so, we ought to stress that the future is inherently unknowable. Claims to have a special knowledge of the future run the risk of being proved wrong. It is usually better for the Futurist to alert others of possible futures - the various directions which the future might take - or even probable futures that guess at the potential likelihood of different possible futures. This is very different to forecasting a single unique future that will occur. Most often, forecasts are just plain wrong. However, the process of forecasting is such that the conversation, if not the result, can be quite instructive. It was in this light that I was attracted to the lecture.

I quite liked the lecture. It was both stimulating and provocative. The argument was well constructed and the delivery kept things moving at a decent pace. Professor Mainelli appeared to have mastered his brief and presented it with great confidence. As entertainment it was extremely enjoyable. I would recommend the lecture series as both informative and enjoyable.

READ the full report.

The Future Of Citizenship

A Meeting Organised By The NCVO

The NCVO, London, UK
17th January 2008

Speakers:

MICHELLE HARRISON, Henley Centre Headlight Vision

MICHAEL EVANS, Changemakers

Citizenship is one of those areas which we take as a given. In my mind, the question of citizenship hinges around the relationship between a person and the wider community. Much of the conversation at the meeting was according to an agenda dominated by the UK government. One can see why they might be interested in such a conversation. The diminution of the nation state into smaller communities, such as Wales or Scotland, and the aggregation of national sovereignty into supra-national entities, such as the EU, calls into question the relevance of the continued focus on the nation state as the basic building block of government.

On the whole I enjoyed the session. I didn’t agree with a lot of the content and I had questions over the futures methodology, but the material was presented in a clear and logical way. Michelle and Michael were great speakers and they really engaged the audience. I don’t normally come out of my bubble to rub shoulders with people in the real world, but I am very glad that I did so on this occasion.

READ the full report.

Climate Change, Ethics, And The Economics Of The Global Deal

A Lecture Organised By The Royal Economic Society

Logan Hall, Institute of Education, London, UK
30th November 2007

Speaker:

SIR NICHOLAS STERN, London School of Economics

(Sir Nicholas will be ennobled on 11th December 2007, after which he will be known as Lord Stern).

I was invited to this lecture as a member of the Royal Economic Society. I accepted the invitation because I thought that it would be interesting to listen to one of the more influential thinkers on the subject of climate change. The Stern Review of Climate Change has become something of a landmark in terms of policy development in Europe, but has hardly registered as a policy document in North America. I relished the prospect of finding out why this might be so.

Sir Nicholas delivered a fairly standard economic review of climate change. It is an externality that stands out from other externalities in that it is global in scope, it has implications in a time frame much longer than most planning horizons allow for, the causes and effects of climate change are still uncertain, and the consequences of climate change are potentially large and potentially irreversible.

Whilst I had to admire the technical aspects of the presentation, the logic of the model, and the smooth way in which it was presented, I was unconvinced by the argument. I wasn’t convinced by the suggested use of the price mechanism to correct a market failure. I cannot foresee the US Government adopting Pigovian taxes on fuel consumption in the near future. And I cannot foresee multi-lateral agreement on the reduction of carbon emissions prior to COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2009. All in all, I came away from the presentation rather down in the dumps. Perhaps we ought to start preparing for a world in which there are 750 ppm of CO2e?

READ the full report.

You can now register your views through the Predictify web site.

Click here to vote on whether I am being unduly pessimistic ablout Climate Change.

Stealing The Silver

A Meeting Organised By Gresham College

Gresham College, London, UK
12th November 2007

Speaker:

MICHAEL MAINELLI, Mercers’ Professor of Commerce, Gresham College

I was first attracted to the talk by the concept which it advances – that investment represents an intergenerational wealth transfer, and, implicit in all wealth transfers, is a value judgement upon the equity of such transfers. This has become one of the great issues of our time, particularly if we subscribe to the view that one of the most pressing problems facing humanity is that of climate change - which represents an intergenerational wealth transfer from the future to the present, a great disinvestment, you might say.

There were two central themes to the evening – the question of the appropriate discount rate between generations and the issue of wealth transfers. The presentation looked at the latter before moving on to the former. On the issue of wealth transfers, there are two principal approaches – the bottom up approach, where wealth is transferred from the poor to the rich, mainly through the tax and benefits system. This approach underpins most of the social welfare systems in Europe. The second approach is the top-down approach, where the rich appropriate from the poor and seek their own advancement through this approach. We might stylise the bottom up approach as that used by Robin Hood, and the top down approach as that used by the Sheriff of Nottingham. The evening contented itself with a review of the approach of the Sheriff of Nottingham.

I really enjoyed the evening. It was both stimulating and provocative. Although the issues were complex and the subject matter potentially dull - it is difficult to get excited about discounted future cash flows – Professor Mainelli expounded his views in such an entertaining way that the audience was captivated. As an act of theatre it was extremely enjoyable. I would recommend the lecture series as both informative and enjoyable.

READ the full report.

Shocking Truths - The 21st Century Slave Trade

A Meeting Organised By The RSA

The RSA, London, UK
27th September 2007

Speakers:

EMMA THOMPSON

HELEN BAMBER, The Helen Bamber Foundation

My attraction to this meeting was the content. As part of our project on the Globalisation of Crime, I felt that this would be an interesting source of information about the flow of people, both legal and illegal, for the purposes of an illicit objective – the UK sex trade. I did have reservations about the involvement of celebrity (Emma Thompson has won two Oscars, and is quite well known on the UK) because I feared that it might overshadow the purpose of the meeting. However, on the other hand, it appears to me that many of my fellow attendees were there to see Emma Thompson, so the inclusion of celebrity, on this occasion, did broaden the conversation to a wider audience.

On the whole, I found the talk to very useful and illuminating. Although there were times when Emma Thompson’s celebrity played to the audience, I don’t feel that it detracted too much from the issues. The key point was that the talk persuaded me to go over to Trafalgar Square to have a look at the installation. If that was the purpose of the talk, then it achieved that purpose.

READ the full report.

World Future 2007

This year for the World Futurists conference we went to Minneapolis. As this was my first conference I was a little nervous but really I didn't know what to expect. When I got to the Hilton it was a little overwhelming as everything was so big. Also I had never seen escalators in a hotel so I thought that was really cool.

There was some great material that was given and I learnt loads about what a “Futurist” means, like you have to know loads about everything even if you don’t do much work on it. Also how you need an opinion on most things and to be able to back that opinion up with evidence.

I started off with a pre conference course of Futuring: An Introduction to the Study of the Future by Peter Bishop. I found this really useful as there were some points where I had to speak and talk about why I thought something. Also something that is quite good to learn is that 9 out of 10 times a forecast is wrong.

In a way the conference was quite a blur as it went so quickly but one talk that stuck in my mind was Future Flow by Derek Woodgate. It really made me think about what most people must think of the future and how it is always bleak. It made me think that if many people take a step back and are less pessimistic then the world can become a much happier place. Especially, I think, in schools.

My dad did a few presentations so I went and helped him for these (being his slide girl) I think they went really well but I wasn’t always concentrating a lot as I was working. Overall I think the conference went really well and I am looking forward to next year in Washington.

Should Ipswich Develop Its Infrastructure Before It Builds More Houses?

A Meeting Organised By EUFO

The Ipswich Institute
19th September 2007


Speakers:

CLLR RICHARD ATKINS, Ipswich Borough Council

BARBARA ROBINSON, Community Campaigner

This meeting was organised as part of the RSA Coffee House Challenge initiative. The aim of the programme is to empower groups of people at a local level to meet to discuss matters of significance to them. It is part of a movement to reinvigorate public life in the UK at the grass roots level. The issues of development and regeneration in Ipswich have been at the heart of much activity of the Borough Council in recent years.

The central core of Ipswich is being modernised and given a fresh life, whilst the construction of large housing developments within the town have been a feature with us for some years. This development has not been without its problems. Traffic congestion, pollution, and the degradation of the built environment in the town centre have also accompanied the development in the town. This has led some members of the public to question whether the redevelopment of the town centre ought to be paused to allow for the accompanying infrastructure to catch up. This was the heart of the question being asked at the meeting.

READ the full report.

Transport For the 21st Century

A Conference Organised By Suffolk County Council

Trinity Park, Ipswich, UK
7th September 2007

Participants:

CLLR GUY McGREGOR, Suffolk County Council (Chair)

DAVID FROST, British Chamber of Commerce

ROB MAIDMENT, Suffolk Development Agency

ANDY CAMERON, WSP Consultants

SAMIRA AHMED, B Sky B

ROGER TURKINGTON, Suffolk ACRE

COLIN IRLAM, Suffolk County Council

I was originally attracted to this meeting by a number of factors. To begin with, the focus of the conference was local to where I live, and the issue of transport is one that will affect me – personally - for some time to come. I was also interested in observing the state of play with regards to Foresight in the Public Sector. One could quite well argue that the UK is one of the leading exponents of Public Sector Foresight. However, there is a view that this is confined to the national level and has not really permeated down to the level of Local Government in the UK. I wanted to test this hypothesis. Finally, our research indicates that one of the major trends within society is the shift of allegiance away from the national and towards the community. I wanted to gain a feel for the community in which I happen to live and work.

The Conference was a first step in the engagement with the future. It was a good first step, and we ought not to expect too much from that first step. It will be interesting to see what comes from the Conference. If it is a stand alone event, then it would take on the characteristics of an opportunity missed. If, however, it was to represent the start of a process by which there is a discussion about what futures are possible and what futures are desired, then we shall all look back at the afternoon as quite a memorable event.

READ the full report.

Perspectives Of Globalisation

An Evening Organised By The Tomorrow Network

The Royal Society, UK

12th March 2007

Participants:

MARTIN ALBROW, Centre for Global Governance, LSE

GEORGE YIP, Director of Research & Innovation, CapGemini

There are few who would argue against Globalisation being a feature of the Post-Modern age. However, when we go beyond the platitudes, there is little agreement about what exactly constitutes Globalisation and whether or not it is a good thing. On the one hand, it is globalisation that is blamed for throwing out of work thousands of workers in the industrialised West. On the other hand, it is the phenomenon that is responsible for 100 million people moving out of poverty in China and India each year. I was attracted to the evening by the prospect of resolving these apparent paradoxes.

READ the full report

The Future Of Security

An Evening Organised By The Tomorrow Network

The Royal Society, UK

28th February 2007

Participants:

AUDREY CRONIN, Changing Nature of War Programme, Oxford University

MICHAEL CLARKE, Kings College, London University


A secure future is something that we all hope for. However, our concern about the security of Civil Society is a recent phenomenon. In many ways, it is true to say that our concern started on September 11th 2001, as that was the date that the US engaged with the issue. Since 9/11, security has been an issue that has dominated international affairs. Not that 9/11 touched many nations. It did, however, draw in many nations as the US engaged with the issue.

9/11 has also determined how we define ‘security’. It has come to mean that we are secure from terrorist attack. However, in a wider definition, ‘security’ could have a number of different meanings. It could mean that we – the human race - are secure from hunger. Or poverty. Or disease. There could be a number of manifestations of ‘security’ that we have lost in recent years.

It is with these points in mind that I attended the evening. I did rather expect the programme to reflect the modern usage of the term ‘security’, as Dr Cronin is the Director of Studies at the Changing Nature of War Programme, Oxford University, and Prof. Clarke is part of the Centre for Defence Studies at Kings College, London. However, I was also interested in finding out how they thought the issue of ‘security’ might develop in the future.

READ the full report.