The Great Stagnation

by Tyler Cowen (Dutton 2011 – ISBN 978-0-525-95271-8)

This is an interesting little book. It is tightly written and well argued, which serve to make it a very easy read. In fact, I managed the whole book on one return train ride to London.

There are a number of ideas that are worth exploring within the book, but the core message is that technology has driven economic growth since the late Eighteenth Century, and that the pace of innovation has fallen to the point where the pace of growth is slowing as well. What does that mean? Well, first and foremost, it means that the singularity is not near. This is a position that I have agreed with for a few years now.

In part, the author ascribes this to knowledge passing from being a public good to becoming a private good. This is fortunate for the few lucky owners who possess that knowledge - they do well in the 'winner takes all' economy that it creates. However, for the rest of us - for whom we call the 99% nowadays - it is not so fortunate. Our ability to consume at the levels to which we are accustomed has been maintained not by growth, but by debt in recent decades. However, the lack of productivity growth has undermined our ability to repay the debt we have taken out.

This is an important message for governments. Debt reduction and austerity plans presume that we shall be able to return to previously attained growth levels. What happens if we can't? I guess that means we are due for a very long period of stagnation. And this is the important message coming from the book. We are heading towards a new normal, and a return to business as usual is no longer an option. This is what policy makers are not yet getting.

I would strongly recommend this book. It is an antidote to the blind optimism we find in technology nowadays. It explains why a policy of austerity will only make things worse. And it serves as a warning that we are unable to continue as if the financial crisis did not happen. We have reached the point where the bills have to be paid.

© The European Futures Observatory 2012

The Price Of Fish

The Price Of Fish by Michael Mainelli and Ian Harris (Nicholas Brealey 2011 – ISBN 978-1-85788-571-2)

“What does that have to do with the price of fish?” That is a question often asked in the UK when we encounter seemingly random and unconnected events. It is an unusual title for a book. However, the subtitle gives the game away. The full title of the book by Michael Mainelli and Ian Harris is: ‘The Price Of Fish: A New Approach To Wicked Economics And Better Decisions’. As is true in many economics texts, the seemingly unconnected are, actually, well connected.

Wicked problems are those which are messy, circular, inconsistent, and aggressive. The sort of problems we encounter in real life. Wicked economics is the use of a set of economic principles to attempt to solve wicked problems. Almost by definition, such solutions are generally complex, inconsistent, and circular. This is quite a step forward because it contains an implicit rejection of the Enlightenment view that for every problem, there is a single, unique, and optimal solution. The world of wicked problems is one in which there is no right solution, ‘better’ or ‘worse’ solutions are difficult to define, where we live with profound unintended consequences, and where we struggle to find a compass that will suggest the right thing to do.

The right thing to do is an important aspect of the book. It takes the view that the point of economics is not to produce an elegant solution but to have a tangible impact upon the real world. To allow us to make better decisions in the real world. For example, in explaining the ‘winners curse’, we can see why it is that competitive tendering for contracts will almost always result in a sub-optimal result, both for the contractor and for the client. But what can we do about it? One response is to refuse to engage in ‘beauty parades’. Your competitor will always win the contract, but not at a decent profit margin, leaving you a clearer field in the longer term.

There are a large number of really interesting ideas in the book. However, one that struck me as very useful, from the perspective of an economist, was the idea of viewing money as a means of communication in a relationship of trust. Money says something about us as people. It defines how we value ourselves, others, and the material things around us. A core issue in economics, one that has rarely been explained, is the concept of value. Perhaps economists have been looking in the wrong place? Perhaps we should have been looking into studies in inter-personal relationships for answers to the question of value? It could be the case that the study of communication theory would be more useful to us than monetary theory. I find these to be very interesting thoughts.

This is not a simple book. Some of the concepts it contains are quite complex. However, they are explained in a way that will allow a non-technical reader to get to grips with them quite easily. It provides a framework and structure whereby we can view wicked problems and attempt their solution. That alone commends this book.

© The European Futures Observatory 2012

Capitalism 4.0

I am one of those people who read the newspapers from the back to the front. First the sports pages, then the business section, then the editorial and comment, and finally onto the news. I don’t know why I do this – I always have. Perhaps this backwards approach best reflects my interests? I have found that I am starting to do the same with books now. I tend to look at the concluding chapters first. If I find the conclusions interesting, then I might read the introductory chapters to frame the conclusion, and then, if still interested, the bulk of the book for the supporting argument.

I was recently killing time in Logan Airport, Boston (USA - not Lincolnshire) when I came across Anatole Kaletsky’s new book ‘Capitalism 4.0’. Mr Kaletsky is one of those writers who immediately has my attention. As I had a bundle of dollars in my pocket, as they are of limited use to me in the UK, and as I had time on my hands, I bought the book. My flight was overnight, so I only read the concluding chapters. They seem to contain something useful, something sufficiently interesting for me to take the book on holiday to examine the full argument.

The main thesis of the book is that something substantial has occurred in the recent financial crisis. We call it ‘The End Of The Washington Consensus’. The timing of this event varies between commentators. Those in the US date it at the collapse of Lehman Brothers, those in the UK date it from the nationalisation of Northern Rock. Either way, from that point onwards, things would be different.

What we do not know is how they will be different, and this is the contribution of the book. Mr Kaletsky takes a much longer view of the economy and starts to speculate about what comes next, which is exactly what we, as futurists, have been doing for the past couple of years. This is why we commend the book. It is not a map of the future, but it does serve as a guide into some fairly uncharted territory. If you are of the opinion that ‘back to business as usual’ is not an option, then this book is a good starting point for you.

Book review from The Economist.

© The European Futures Observatory 2010

Future Savvy

Adam Gordon

ISBN 978-0-8144-0912-1

We live in an age of numbers. It is often heard of management that ‘if we can’t measure it, we can’t control it’, and so we attempt to measure everything. Whilst this is appropriate for events that have happened in the past, it presents something of a problem for events that have yet to happen – future events. We do, however, wish to control our future, which means that parallel to the age of numbers is an age of forecasts and predictions. The promise of the book is that it will help us in “identifying trends to make better decisions, manage uncertainty, and profit from change”.

It is this practical aspect of the book that would recommend it to a wide readership. Those who specialise in areas other than a study of the future would be commended to come to grips with the template for forecast filtering and to apply it to their areas. More general students could well benefit from the text as a means to internalise a way to come to grips with future forecasts. And the text could be recommended to more seasoned futurists as a quick checklist of the questions that we ought to be asking about our work.

On the whole, I enjoyed reading the book. It was a straightforward read that meant that I could cover the issues without too much difficulty and the material was presented in a way that made it readily absorbable. The book covers an important area that is often neglected, and it is for this reason that I would recommend it.

READ the full review.

Going Global

Key Questions For The 21st Century

Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley

ISBN 978-0-7136-8866-5

There are very few of us – if any – who have not been touched by globalisation. In common with most phenomena, globalisation has its advocates and its detractors. For example, on the plus side, it is seen as the root cause of the rise of nations such as India and China, which, jointly, account for 100 million fewer people living in poverty each year. On the other hand, it has been responsible for the migration of jobs to the newly industrialising nations, causing great economic and social dislocation in Europe and North America. Globalisation is one of the key issues of our times. Michael Moynagh and Richard Worsley jointly run the Tomorrow Project. This is an organisation based in the UK that collates thinking about the future. The prospect of a futures perspective on the issue of globalisation is something that commended itself to me.

This is a great book. As a futures text, it is a bit narrow in scope and a bit too close to the present. But is it a futures text? If we turn the question around, the book does have a number of uses to which it could be well put. I see this as a good introductory text for ‘A’ Level and first year undergraduate students of economics and geopolitics. It would give them the language and basic concepts of globalisation. It could also provide a contemporary briefing for those engaged in the foundation level of their professional exams and for those is business who have a responsibility for strategy but who are not futurists. It could help them to understand some of the complexities of the world in which we live. As a text, the book is well written, the arguments flow naturally in a logical order and the book moves along at a good pace. This commends it as a good read. So, if you are looking for a good introduction to globalisation, then look no further than this book.

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The Writing On The Wall

China And the West In The 21st Century

Will Hutton

ISBN 978-0-316-73018-1

It is a widely held view that the rise of China will dominate the economic and political landscape during the first half of the twenty-first century. Already we have felt the influence of the Chinese economy in holding down inflation rates (and interest rates) in the OECD nations and we are on the verge of witnessing the impact of Chinese diplomacy in Africa. Whichever way you look at it, the development of China is having an impact on our world. Will Hutton has a long pedigree of writing incisive commentaries on the major issues of the day that will have an impact on the near future. The combination of an important topic such as the rise of China and the lucidity of Will Hutton means that this is a work that ought not to be ignored.

I feel that the book can be well recommended. It is well researched, well written, and well argued. More importantly, it is an easy book to follow and has an appeal to a more general readership. If your life has been touched by the rise of China – and whose hasn’t? – then this book will help you to look at some of the possible futures that you might face.

READ the full review.

A Bill Of Rights For 21st Century America

Joseph F. Coates

ISBN 978-1-4196-6532-5

I was first attracted to this book for three reasons. First, the process of building a constitution is one that has dominated Europe for a generation, and is set to dominate the political agenda in Europe for at least another generation. There is much about building a constitution for a continental power that the EU can learn from the American experience. Second, the United States – and its constitution – is very much a child of The Enlightenment. If it is true that we are moving away from Enlightenment 1.0 – possibly towards Enlightenment 2.0, possibly something different – then, given the hyperpuissance of the US, even if the status quo ex ante were to be maintained, we would not expect the transition from one state to another to be without difficulty. Finally, we take the view that Mr Coates is one of the elder statesmen of the futurist profession. If there is an issue that he sees as important, then we are well advised to treat it seriously ourselves. We may not agree with the conclusions, but we ought to consider the issue.

The US is still the major player in global geo-politics and, as such, commands a disproportionate amount of our attention. I agree with Mr Coates that the US Constitution needs an update. As a manifesto for action, this book has much to recommend it. We may not agree with all of the proposals within the book, but it is important to debate them openly. For this reason, it is an important text.

READ the full review.

Thinking About The Future

by Andy Hines & Peter Bishop (Eds.)

ISBN 0-9789317-0-X

The intention of the book is to be practical. It describes itself as setting out guidelines for strategic foresight. I rather see it as a navigators guide into the future. The book identifies 115 guidelines for undertaking strategic foresight activity, which are grouped into six sequential steps – Framing, Scanning, Forecasting, Visioning, Planning, and Acting. This framework has been derived from a wide collaboration between 36 leading foresight practitioners and academics, which was also cross-referenced and synthesised by the Association of Professional Futurists’ Professional Development team. The contributing team was global in its origins and cutting-edge in its approach.

On the whole, I enjoyed the book. I believe that it will provide an important landmark in the literature of strategic foresight. It may not become a business best seller because of the limited audience to which it will appeal. However, I would thoroughly recommend it to those engaged in the area of strategic foresight and strategic planning.

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The Clash Of Civilisations

by Samuel Huntington

ISBN 0-7432-3149-X

I came to this book through the recommendation of others. In our research for the America 2025 project, we continually bumped into references to the model laid out in this book. This made it important for us to consider the model, if only to use it as a base line in assessing the work undertaken by others. In turn, the model has been quite influential in the formation of foreign policy in recent years, particularly as it provides a metric whereby we can include the Islamic world. For this reason, it would be inappropriate for us not to consider a work of such influence.

The civilisational approach is a useful start to considering international relations. It can be used to explain a number of conflicts within the contemporary world (e.g. in the Ukraine), but it also has its shortcomings. It is a useful tool for us to use, but not the only one. For this reason, I would recommend the book.

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Paradise And Power

by Robert Kagan

ISBN 1-84354-177-7

Mr Kagan sets out his stall in the very first sentence of the book. We are told that: “It is time to stop pretending that Europeans and Americans share a common view of the world, or even that they occupy the same world.” I think, more than anything, it was this first sentence that drew me into the book.

We live at a time when many in Europe are seriously questioning the role of the USA in the world. This questioning of US leadership in world affairs has caused many in America to reconsider what the commitment of the US to world affairs ought to be. The rise of a unipolar system of international relations has also seen the increased willingness of the US to act unilaterally in world affairs. In taking up the book, I hoped to gain a deeper insight into this apparent rift that is developing between the US and its key supporters in Europe.

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The Rise Of The Creative Class

By Richard Florida

ISBN 0-465-02477-7

We seem to be living in a world that defies explanation. There are many features of the world in which we are living that we cannot explain from our past experience. We know that we are living in an era of very rapid change, and we do not have a framework that we can use to understand those changes. It is this sense of bewilderment – “Futureshock” as the Tofflers would have it - that attracted me to the book. I felt that it might help me to explain the world in which I find myself. We decided to incorporate the book as part of our Small Business Project, which has a keen interest in the future direction of the UK economy over the next 15 years or so, because it seemed to have something useful to say about small business formation and regional development.

The real test for an academic work such as this lies in its utility. Does the book help us to understand the world in which we live? I feel that it does, and I also feel that it advances our knowledge by a considerable degree. It provides an alternative to the established location theory, which might not be working as effectively as it needs to. By way of conclusion, I am very convinced by the arguments advanced in the book, and I have no hesitation in recommending it to all of those who have an interest in local regeneration, social development, and the Knowledge Economy.

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The Breaking Of Nations

by Robert Cooper

ISBN 1-84354-231-5

I was attracted to this book for a number of reasons. To begin with, Robert Cooper is a much respected commentator on International Affairs. He is one of the UK’s most senior diplomats and was formerly a special adviser to Tony Blair on foreign policy. Merely by being at the centre of events at an important point in recent history ensures that we ought to listen to what Mr Cooper has to say. However, Mr Cooper does have much to say that ought to be heeded if we are to understand events in the contemporary world. In the context of our “America 2025” project (see project), his book delivers an important conceptual model, which we will find of great use when undertaking the creation of the scenarios.

I see this as an important book, one that is worth reading. I liked the style of the writing and I found that I could follow the arguments without a great deal of effort on my part. Parts of the book were very illuminating and parts of the book contributed greatly to my understanding of the world. For this reason, I would recommend the book.

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The Chaos Point

by Ervin Laszlo

ISBN 1-57174-485-1

Some would say that this is not an easy book to read. It throws out so many questions to the reader that, as you read the book, you find that your mind is moving off at a tangent for most of the time. It is, however, a book worth struggling over, as it is quite an important book.

I enjoyed the challenge of the book. It is a hard read – both in terms of style and content – but an important read nonetheless. It is worth the effort to struggle through the book because of the macro-model of the world that it presents. The argument is well reasoned – if obscure at times – and does actually sound a clarion call to action. I was convinced by the future worth creating and I rather hope that others rise to the challenge.

READ the full review.

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The Fourth Power

by Gary Hart

ISBN 0-19-517683-9

This book is one of the most important books that I have read in recent years. Additionally, for those whose aims are to supplant the US in global geopolitics, this is an extraordinarily dangerous book. Gary Hart has simply re-stated the fundamentals that made America a great power. In doing so, he has breathed life into the concept of what it is to be American.

I really enjoyed this book. It is well written, the argument flows very well, and, although the topics are quite difficult at points, it is an easy read. The book is not too long, and does not dwell on points, which helps it to avoid being long winded. We can thoroughly recommend the book as it covers an important topic in an informed way, with a style that helps the reader to understand the points being made.

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The European Dream

by Jeremy Rifkin

ISBN 0-74-563425-7

It would be hard to argue against a proposition that something is happening in Europe. There is a force that first emerged after the Second World War that gathered momentum during the final quarter of the Twentieth Century, and is now starting to assert itself on the world stage. Defining exactly what that force is poses a much larger problem. We know that something is there, but we can’t quite say what it is. This lack of clarity on my part drew me to this book. I hoped that it would help me to define the essence of the European Project.

READ the full review.

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Global Remix

By RICHARD SCASE

ISBN 0-7494-4871-7

At first I was confused by this book. I couldn’t quite make up my mind whether it was a futures text about the future of management, or whether it was a management text about the application of foresight in management. About half way through the book I decided that it was both. There are elements within the book that will appeal to those who wish to engage in management issues, and there are elements in the book that contain some very useful insights into the future.

This book is an ideal purchase for those managers and corporate planners who are looking for an introduction to foresight and futures studies. It is not too demanding and it does not require a great deal of technical knowledge in order to get the best from it. I would thoroughly recommend the book as a corporate gift for junior managers looking to raise their game. This is the demographic to which the book is aimed.

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Why Europe Will Run The 21st Century

by MARK LEONARD

ISBN 0-00-719531-1

I really enjoyed reading this book. Mr Leonard has a style of writing that makes it easy to follow the argument. The book is divided into digestible sections, which makes it easy to put down and pick up again without losing the thread of the argument. This book is well recommended to those who would like to study the case for Europe put by an enthusiastic Europhile. The fact that Mr Leonard is a British Europhile is just an added bonus.

READ the full review.

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Turning The Future Into Revenue

by GLEN HIEMSTRA

ISBN 0-471-79293-4

I really enjoyed this book. It is well written, the argument flows very well and the topics are quite easy to follow. This makes it an easy read. The book is not too long, and does not dwell on points, which helps it to avoid being long winded. We can thoroughly recommend the book as it covers an important topic in an informed way, with a style that helps the reader to understand the points being made. I would recommend the book to strategic planners as a text to describe the preliminary activities to strategic planning, and to act as an introduction to the study of the future.

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