Signs that Mr Osborne's Gamble is paying off. This seems to be down to the weakened exchange rate. Now that Sterling is strengthening again, I wonder if the gamble will continue to pay off?
Of course, there is a threat to this rosy picture. As factory gate prices are rising, so are the calls (mainly from the financial economy) for interest rate rises to stave off the inflationary threat. Not to actually reduce inflation, but to show that we are serious about inflation. This is a bit like cutting off your nose to demonstrate a capacity to bleed. Anyway, if interest rates were to rise, we would expect Sterling to strengthen as well. That would damage UK manufacturing as UK goods became more expensive overseas. It would also reduce the prospect of Mr Osborne’s Gamble paying off.
I wonder if the Bank of England does want to choke the recovery, weak as it is?
© The European Futures Observatory 2011