This is a really useful chart because it shows a comparative estimate of the output gaps of various countries. In a previous post, we calculated the US Output Gap to be about 10%. Interestingly enough, this is a figure that The Economist has independently arrived at. What is of concern is the UK Output Gap, which is estimated at about 13%. We feel that this is a bit high, not because economic activity is greater than estimated, but because we feel that economic potential has been severely eroded by the recession.
To be frank, what we mean is that there are now youngsters who will never work because they haven’t developed the habit of working in their formative years. This is the human cost of recession – blighted lives. It is a legacy that far too many politicians forget about until social turbulence moves from being an abstract concept to being disorder on the streets.
© The European Futures Observatory 2011